In this article, published in in The Measurable News, the forecasting accuracy of three time predictors using the earned value and earned schedule methodology is along the topology of the project network. The article concludes that a more serial network that contains, on average, more critical activities, results in a better forecast accuracy compared to more parallel networks.
The Journal of Modern Project Management
In this article, published in in The Measurable News, the forecasting accuracy of three time predictors using the earned value and earned schedule methodology is compared and validated. The main reason why a distinction between critical and non-critical activities is made is to test the performance of earned value based time predictors when used on high levels in the Work Breakdown Structure WBS.
Since the use of these predictors on high WBS levels can potentially mask potential problems and lead to wrong forecasts, this study shows how accurate they perform, despite this error. In this article, published in in The Measurable News, the forecasting accuracy of various time predictors using the earned value and earned schedule methodology is compared and validated. Nine methods are compared and it is shown that the earned schedule based predictors outperform the traditional earned value based methods when predicting the final duration of a project in progress.
The EVM Europe conference will showcase integrated project control best practices and novel research activities to Europe.
It aims at bringing practitioners as well as researchers together to share their knowledge and exploit opportunities. Identify performance issues early, assess impact, and determine corrective actions. Use mobile capabilities to capture progress and status in the field. Identify and immediately communicate issues and incidents to the project team to reduce delays and promote informed decision making. Speak with an Expert.
What is Earned Value?
Even though EVM has been shown to improve project success, organizations often struggle to assemble the planned values, progress, actuals, and schedule data to support EVM initiatives. Leverage advanced integration and built-in business intelligence to deliver:. Driving an EVM initiative? Take a closer. EcoSys supports all EVM processes for analysis and performance management:.
In EcoSys Projects: Assemble all the components needed for earned value — schedule, cost, planned values, progress — and then calculate your key performance indicators. Learn More. Actual Cost AC , also called actual expenditures, is the cost incurred for executing work on a project. This figure tells you what you have spent and, as with Planned Value, can be looked at in terms of cumulative and current. Cumulative AC is the sum of the actual cost for activities performed to date. Current AC is the actual costs of activities performed during a given period.
To report the accomplishments of the project, you must apply Earned Value EV to the figures and calculations in the project. In other words, EV tells you, in physical terms, what the project has accomplished. Cumulative EV is the sum of the budget for the activities accomplished to date.
Current EV is the sum of the budget for the activities accomplished in a given period. Planned Value PV is determined by the cost and schedule baseline. Actual Cost AC is determined by the actual cost incurred on the project. Earned Value EV tells you, in physical terms, what the project accomplished.
As the project planning components become known, the scope and quality, schedule, and cost estimate. When approval is granted the project has established a planning baseline or time-phased cost plan. Also, the project manager will be provided with financial information from accounting that will expressed the actual cost incurred on the project s work is performed, then the project manager will seek information from the team that will state the budgeted cost of work performed on the project, or earned value.
After those three values are established, a variance analysis can be performed. There are two basic expressions of variance, schedule variance and cost variance. Schedule Variance status does indicate the dollar value difference between work that is ahead or behind the plan and reflects a given measurement method.
The formula utilized to express schedule variance is project earned value minus the project planned value as of the date of examination. If a negative variance is determined, the project is behind schedule and if the variance is positive the project is ahead of schedule. If the variance is equal to 0, the project is on budget. If a negative variance is determined, the project is over budget and if the variance is positive the project is under budget. It is the ratio of earned value EV to planned value PV.
An SPI equal to or greater than one indicates a favorable condition and a value of lass than one indicates an unfavorable condition. Assuming your SPI efficiency remains through out the reminder of work; your project will finish ahead of schedule. It is the ratio of earned value EV to actual costs AC.
Assuming your CPI efficiency remains the same throughout the reminder of work; your project will be over budget. Now it is time to learn how to analyze the future or what is expected to happen on a project given the progress measurements reported to date. Anticipating future progress requires determining when the project will be completed and how much it will cost to complete it. The Estimate at Completion EAC is the actual cost to date plus an objective estimate of costs for remaining authorized work.
The objective in preparing an EAC is to provide an accurate projection of cost at the completion of the project. If they are not equal, your earned value calculations and analysis will be inaccurate. The EAC is the best estimate of the total cost at the completion of the project. The EAC is a periodic evaluation of the project status, usually on a monthly basis or when a significant change happens to the project. EACs are developed with varying degrees of detail and supporting documents. A comprehensive EAC is usually prepared annually or if there are any major changes in the project.
There are multiple ways to develop an EAC. The technique selected is based upon the dollar value of the project, the risk, accounting system available and the accuracy of the estimates. One common formula for determining the EAC is expressed as budget at completion divided by the current CPI of the project.